Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Racing Previews & Betting Tips

I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.

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Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven.
The five-timer-seeking Caius Chorister is worth throwing into the melting pot, in company with Night Of Luxury and Sheer Rocks.
There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022.
He looked a strong stayer at last season’s Festival and this test might be just the ticket.
In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far.
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The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).

talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Saturday at Wetherby

Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

Ballyadam – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 14/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP.
Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25!
This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even.
There, you will be able to see a list of all the runners and various stats about them such as their weights, ages, and jockeys.
Following these will give you some indication as to what you can expect in the run-up to a big event.
Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.

Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.

Check out all our bets at Lingfield, Beverley, Listowel, Warwick and Newcastle on Tuesday

There’s a fair argument that three of his four falls/unseats were because he is a wuss, scaring himself on the landing side when not foot perfect. I doubt he’ll iron that out before March but, if he could take off and land adroitly throughout, he’d be interesting for all that it’s (very) hard to forget his errant transit in the 2020 Supreme. As such, a prominent run style might be an advantage, which could be a positive for the likes of Minella Indo and Chantry House. Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race.

Golden Days

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Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don’t think that race’s profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him. Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year’s Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices’ chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he’s won a beginners’ and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior. The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his ‘dark horse’ claims.

Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for Race 5 👇🏼

Look at how the horse is built, how he walks, his presence and demeanour. Just when you think you have a race sorted, a horse you hadn’t even considered might surprise you. Sometimes the little horse who might not look much defeats the big horse.

Aidan O’Brien runner underestimated as one of three Breeders’ Cup picks

I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one. The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%). LH – Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he’d improved when winning next time.

The County Hurdle is often won by a Graded performer, most notably last season’s subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner State Man.
Three runs, three wins, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 (twice) company, beating the right horses with nonchalance.
In accounting for stablemate Haatem in the Irish Guineas he as expected got back on track, and duly lined up against a very deep field in the day one highlight at Royal Ascot.
Jockeys are important at this meeting, however, and the experience of Rachael Blackmore versus the exuberance of Chester Williams tilts the pendulum in favour of Champion Green if having to choose between them.
Ontheropes is a slight rarity in that he’s a Cheveley Park Stud entry, and trained by Willie Mullins, that is not favourite.
If we focus only on LTO winners, it is interesting that each LTO Graded category made a small individual profit to BSP, as did those who won a Listed contest.

David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday

This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.

Sedgefield Tips

All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.

Horse Racing Tips: Fran Berry’s Friday night flutters at Dundalk

Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.

Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark

Then we head to Wales for the two meetings on Tuesday with good prize money on offer at Bangor and further south for Chepstow. Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances. Horse race gambling is the cornerstone of the sports betting world, and has been for the best part of a century.

Northfields Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Irish Champions Weekend)

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

Back From Dubai had some Class 6 questions to answer but this 0-55 required very little winning. 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even allowing for the grade. Another deep race with plenty of experienced campaigners making their seasonal returns. Whilst the race is open on paper, it may be worth chancing WINDSOR AVENUE.

Average StakeFor lay bets the stake amount is classed as the exposure amount for the bet (e.g. 100 laid at odds of 4/1 is a stake of 400).
In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command.
Fast, frantic, furious, frenetic, ferocious and other adjectives beginning with ‘f’.
For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course.
So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo.
He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L.
Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future.

That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus.
Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread.
And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
A change of scenery is sometimes enough, but often it is a change of regime or some personal attention – maybe a weekly back massage or whatever – that can aid a horse’s progression.
However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band.
Min, who clocked a decent time at Leopardstown last time, could prove a bigger threat.
Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher.

Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds. Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year’s Irish cohort are not as good as normal?

Gowran Park Tips

David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.

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What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.

The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard. Joe is in good form – two notable winners at Sandown’s big weekend fixture – and this one has a nice bit of experience after four chase outings. He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since. Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed. Closest to A Dream To Share in last year’s Grade 1 Punchestown bumper was Tullyhill, who got off the mark at the second time of asking over timber having been second on debut at odds of 1-8.

Dundalk (IRE) Tips